US natural gas output set to hit a record in 2026

Natural gas heats a large share of American homes and generates more US electricity than any other fuel. The government's latest forecast says drillers will pump more of it in 2026 than ever before. The Energy Information Administration expects average daily production of 122.5 billion cubic feet, edging past last year's record.

That number is hard to picture. Here's the plain version. American wells are now pumping about 4 billion more cubic feet of gas every day than during last year's record. Two things are driving the jump. Shale drillers keep getting more efficient at pulling gas from the ground. And the US now exports far more liquefied natural gas than before. That gives overseas buyers a reason to want even more. Export demand doesn't just help drillers, though. It can also push up the price Americans pay for gas at home, even while production climbs.

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Will this record actually hold? It's still a forecast, built from the first half of the year's data, not a final count. The bigger question is what happens to gas prices. AI data centers and LNG export terminals are both competing for the same supply. More production usually means lower prices. But demand might grow even faster than drilling does. If it does, Americans could end up paying more for gas. That could happen even as the US produces more of it than ever.